Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The typical figure of per-day killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not point to better national security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President began the leadership in September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is remarkably important,” the President stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that relying on murder data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for gauging the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it may obscure periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.